UK Pound v Aus Dollar

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

In this post and the posts that follow I want to provide members of PIA the good and the bad of whats happening that may affect exchange rates. So regular updates should continue at the end of this thread. My aim is not to make this too technical.

 

 

Hi Guys,

 

An interesting change today has had an affect on the exchange rates

 

Australian Private Capital Expenditure q/q was expected to go up by 1.1% instead it was -3.9% which has had a positive effect on the pound, in a small way but still significant

Private Capital Expenditure q/q is a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their investment levels can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings.

So watch this space, those of you with pounds I guess will want news to continue in this way for Australia.

 

Above is factual information and is not intended to be advice.

 

For financial advice please pm or call me.

 

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

A big day for the pound today as news comes out regarding

Building Approvals m/m and the cash rate. Its widely expect that the Australian bank will raise rates to 3.75% and a statement will follow. If this rise doesnt happen then it could be good for the pound. Unfortiunately this week New lending and mortgage approvals dropped in the UK. We need more good news from the UK to help the pound.

More major figures are due this week from Australia and the UK so it could be a busy week for Sterling.

 

I hope its good week for sterling, for all of you still holding the Pound.

Best wishes

 

Steve

 

I welcome members contacting me regarding any financial advice matters, UK pensions etc. Practices in Australia and links back to IFAs in the UK.

PM Me or give me a cal.

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Building approvals are down which is bad news for the Aussie Dollar. They were expecting a 2% rise but instead saw a drop of 0.6%

 

Australian Building Approvals percentage is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various services are purchased by the builder

 

Will this affect the rate decision????

I will keep you posted.

Cheers

 

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

The Bank rate has increased by 0.25% to 3.75%

It will be interesting how this and the other news above affects the housing market.

The immediate effect on th exchage rate is that it hasnt really moved as this increase was widely expected.

Increasing interest interest rates in Australia are seen generally as a positive to the Aussie and not the pound if UK rates stay low.

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Important figures out 11 am Adelaide time. Home Loans and Trade balance.

Home loans were down but not as much as expected -1.4% rather than -1.9% (Expected) Positive for the Aussie. Trade balance was worse than expected -$2.38b which is Bad for the Aussie. So a mixed bag today. Big figures out tomorrow with the Australian unemployment figures expected to be 5.9% and later the UK bank rate (Expected to stay at 0.5%). If the news out is different this will afect the exchange rate. Looking at todays exchange rate after todays news there is little change. Hovering on the 1.80-1.79 which its been doing for a few days.

 

This is not meant as advice, for financial advice please PM me.

Thanks

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Unfortunately for those of you with pounds, the Unemployment rate in Australia was less than expected on latest figures. The has provided a bit of a rally in the Aussie we are now at 1.78 to the pound. The UK Bank rate decision is due out shortly but no change is expected there. If it did go up this would potentially help the pound but Im not holding my breath,

 

This is not meant as financial advice.

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Hi All

I was feeling a bit down in the dumps for the pound and then the Australian GDP (Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy) Figure came out today they were expecting 0.4% and it came out at 0.2% This was not good news for the Aussie Dollar and the pound has had a little rally we are now up around 1.813 to the pound which was better than around 1.77/1.78 earlier this week. The house prices are still droping apparantly in the UK which may have lead to the drop earlier Rightmove quoted -2.2%.

I hope this is informative and for those of you with pounds lets hope the rally continues.

Cheers Steve

 

Above is factual information and is not intended to be advice.

For financial advice please pm or call me.

[Guest thekings]

Thanks for these posts Steve, you may not get much response but I suspect that a lot of us are keeping a close eye on them, cheers.

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Hi Guys,

The Australian GDP being lower than expected has raised the idea that the Australian bank rate may not go up in February. Which in turn has caused the Aussie to weaken. Certainly the UK is not looking great right now but some positive news on the jobs front/Claimant count. The pound is now around the 1.82 mark. A little bit better.

Cheers

Steve

 

The above is not meant as financial advice.

[Anne B]

Thanks for these posts, we are certainly watching the exchange rate very carefully.

[Guest kangomik]

I se. Time will tell.e it rallied against the green back (US $) but forcasts showed a stronger Aus $ in 2010

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Wow!!! from 3 O`Clock UK time we started to see a nasty decline in the pound v Aus Dollar. The news earlier in the day from the UK was good. Manufacturing PMI / Net Lending and Mortgage approvals were all better than expected which should on there own make the pound stronger. I guess sentiment is bad for the pound generally. Inflation is a worry. Sorry guys, I will keep you posted. Australain new home sales figures are out today so this could affect things, the bigger news is due tomorrow with Australian Building Approvals and in the UK Halifax House Price figures for the UK and UK services PMI (It's a leading indicator of economic health).

Kindest regards

 

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

News out today from Australia regarding Home Approvals and its not good for the pound. Up more than expected at 5.9%. Good for the Aussie. The pounds had a tough two days.

Sorry guys

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Some more good figures out from Australia today and the pounds taking a bit of a thumping. Retail sales and trade balance better than expected and the pound goes down some more. We are down to around $1.73 !!! More news out later from the UK that could affect rates but I cant see them increasing the UK bank rate. Certainly if they did that would liven things up !!

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Well Guys I am really down in the dumps with the Pound. They are talking about it being devalued etc.. Gordon Brown wasnt de-throwned etc... But a tiny glimer of hope flickered today with Australain Home loans down by 5.6%, they were only expecting a drop of 1.2%. Does this mean that they raised rates too quickly considering all the insentives have gone now? Certainly this isnt good news for the dollar. Might be worth watching the housing market as this is a very strong indicator for currency. If the housing market were to start to slide in Australia this could have a weakening effect on the Aussie.

I say this is a glimmer of hope for the pound because Australia certainly isnt all doom and gloom. The Jobs advertised is increasing and this may well be followed with lower unemployment.

Its going to be an interesting next six months to say the least.

We despirately need some new confidence in the UK !!! We stand at $1.735 to the pound which is not good for those of you with pounds.

 

This email is not meant as Financial Advice. PM or call me if you require this.

Good luck Guys

Steve

[Guest Guest5035]

We stand at $1.735 to the pound which is not good.

 

I might be wrong but to buy a pound with a dollar is about $1.73, which in my books IS GOOD for us here in Australia???

 

Stevo

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

I might be wrong but to buy a pound with a dollar is about $1.73, which in my books IS GOOD for us here in Australia???

 

Stevo

Yeh totally agree. The thread is for Pound v Aussie. Wheras Aussie v Pound well it is like you say very good.

Cheers Stevo

[Guest Guest5035]

http://www.optuszoo.com.au/news/80434/dollar-climbs-toward-parity-with-new-high.html

 

great for the aussie $$$$. Even worse for the pound coming here.

 

stevo

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Australian Unemployment down !! They were expecting 5.8% and its dropped to 5.5% Good for the Aussie not the pound. It has picked up from $1.73 to $1.75 but on this news it could drop back.

Cheers Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Sorry guys for my delay in reposting on this thread. The news from the UK has been pretty bad and the pound has suffered. Its not very often you have a whole country drop its credit rating as the UK did. But some cheer !!! The Australian bank rate has stayed on hold today (Which was a surprise) which immediately saw the Pound rally we are up to the steamy heights of $1.81 as I speak.

Kindest regards

Steve

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Commentators said that there could be a run on the pound and there are some very substancial bets against the pound being made which has seen it fall. Australia raised rates which just made it an even more attractive currency compared to the pound. The pound seems to be under a very dark cloud at the moment and good news seems to keep coming from Australia (Except buliding approvals down 7%). One thing that also seems to have affected things is the fact Labour and the Conservatives are getting much closer on the opinion polls so the election is now looking a tighter race. I will keep you posted on developments but for now we are down to 1.66 which must be very depressing if you hold Sterling.

Cheers

Steve

(This should not be taken in any way as financial advice)

[Guest Chelseadownunder]

Guys Guys!!! Could the tide be changing. Retail sales down for Australia 1.4%. Building approvals down 3.3% and the UK seems to be excellerating out of recession (Dare I say it)

This may signal a pound rally. However the political enviroment seems to be the big sticking point. The market hates uncertainty and thats exactly what we have.

Lets hope this news out at 11 am today lifts the pound from its doldrums.

All the best

Steve

 

(This is not meant as financial advice, however financial advice is just a phone call away)

[Anne B]

Fingers crossed. I'm not expecting anything great until after the election at the earliest though.

[Guest guest4504]

Uk Car scrap fund ends, chance of hung parliment and if so Scot and welsh parties want more funding leading to higher UK debt, next quarterly figures out 3rd week April expected to be lower than 4th quarter of 2009. chance of double dip. Oz rate to inrease, higher demand for Oz comodities. bet the next 12 months could get worse for sterling.

[Guest BAZnDAF]

Uk Car scrap fund ends, chance of hung parliment and if so Scot and welsh parties want more funding leading to higher UK debt, next quarterly figures out 3rd week April expected to be lower than 4th quarter of 2009. chance of double dip. Oz rate to inrease, higher demand for Oz comodities. bet the next 12 months could get worse for sterling.

 

I really hope not...