What about the GBP ?
What about the GBP ?
Jane and Clive
CPV 143 - Feb 2010 Acknowledged 3rd May 2010, VISA GRANTED 3rd June, 2011, Arrived 5th October Moved to new house 18th November 2011, 2014 Living the dream!
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Over the past week, there has not been any notable data for GBP which has affected the exchange rates.
In their economic forecast, the British Chambers of Commerce said the UK will avoid a double-dip recession – also, that growth in 2012 will be slower than previously forecast.
The main focus this week is the Bank of England policy decision on Thursday which will decide on any changes to the quantitative easing target or to interest rates.
Hi all – the latest currency updates are below, thanks.
EUR: The euro spent last week in the middle of the major currency field, despite the anticipation - and then the realisation - of a national default by Greece. After two years in which to accustom themselves to the event, it went through smoothly and scarcely an eyebrow was raised. With the Greek problem out of the way for now, the euro ought to be able to look forward to a period of contemplative calm. The crisis is not over but, for the moment, it is not the foremost of investors' considerations.
USD: Another monthly rise in US non-farm payrolls, the 17th in succession, took to 2.8m the number of jobs that have so far been restored after 8.6m disappeared in 2008-09. The United States is leading the western world back towards recovery. Unusually, the strong employment figures were not seen as a signal to sell the dollar, as has so often been the case in recent years. This time, perhaps because Greece was busy defaulting on its debts at the time, investors took the traditional view and bought dollars.
CAD: Shortly before strong US employment data came out on Friday afternoon Canada released its own positive figures, with a fall in unemployment from 7.6% to 7.4%. It was not the only helpful statistic. Earlier in the week the Ivey purchasing managers' index rose by ten points to 66.0 The index measures activity and orders across a broad spectrum of business and its 18.5% rise was a biggish deal. Taken together the US and Canadian data made North America and its two dollars look good.
AUD: The Aussie was one of the week's two worst performers, partly because of underlying nervousness about Greece but also because of the Australian economic evidence. The current account deficit widened, construction sector activity slowed further, economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter of last year and unemployment went up to 5.2% in February with the unexpected loss of 15.4k jobs. Good news was in short supply.
NZD: The Kiwi fell behind the pound but only to the tune of a cent and a half. In the early part of the week it was held back by uncertainty surrounding the planned Greek default. On Friday it lost ground when investors - unusually - decided that evidence of stronger US economic performance was not a reason to buy the currencies of commodity exporters. And all along, it was weighed down by the Aussie dollar, which was suffering from a series of below-par Australian economic data.
UK: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted and kept interest rates at 0.5% in March – given the economic outlook in the UK, it is likely that rates will stay as they are for a while yet. In other data released, service sector continues to grow however the stats for UK industrial production were lower than expected.
Hi everyone – please find the latest currency updates below, thanks.
AUD: Had it not been for even worse performance by the South African rand the Aussie would have been at the bottom of the table. Re-emerging worries about the health of the global economy adversely affected all the commodity-oriented currencies. Purchasing managers' indices from China and Euroland all came in below the 50 mark, indicating falling activity. The Chinese numbers were especially hurtful; if growth there slows, Australia's exports and its currency will be in less demand.
NZD: As well as the general downward pressure on commodity-related currencies, the NZ dollar had issues of its own. The figures for fourth quarter gross domestic product were a disappointment. Over the three-month period the NZ economy expanded by 0.3%; not a particularly bad result except that investors had been primed to expect twice that much growth. The annual figure also fell short, coming in at 1.8% instead of the predicted 2.2%.
CAD: The Canadian dollar lost less ground to the pound than the antipodean commodity currencies but was not able entirely to hide behind the Greenback. Wholesale and retail sales rained on the Loonie's parade, the first with a -1.0% fall when business should have been up by 0.6%, the second after a monthly 0.5% increase which ought to have been 1.7%. Had it not been for strong auto sales the figure would have been even worse at -0.5%.
EUR: The euro was the week's second best performer, pipped to the post only by its constant companion, the Swiss franc. The source of its success was a successful bond issue in which the European Financial Stability Facility raised €1.5bn to boost its fighting fund. Investors were impressed to discover that there were bids for more than three times the amount of stock on offer. It improved their attitude to the euro immeasurably.
USD: There was nothing to choose between the dollar and the pound, which opened this Monday almost unchanged against one another on the week. Most of the (few) US economic statistics related to the residential property market and they told a mixed story. The NAHB barometer of builders' activity was static at a weak 28%. Building starts and housing permits were on target. New and existing home sales were disappointing, down by -1.6% and -0.9% when both had been expected to rise.
Hi all – please see the latest currency updates below, thanks.
AUD: The Aussie dollar was the week's joint worst performer. It lost two cents against sterling to leave it nearly 6% below February's record high. The manufacturing sector reported slowing activity and building permits were down by -15.2% in the year to February, reinforcing the sensation of weakness in the property market. Like the New Zealand dollar, the Aussie suffered from a belief that the domestic economy in China is struggling. If Chinese consumers don't consume, there will be less demand for Australia's exports.
NZD: The week's two NZ economic statistics made little difference to the value of the currency. Business confidence improved by six points to 33.8 and building permits were down by -6.7% in February. Like the Australian dollar (although to a lesser extent), the Kiwi suffered from a belief that the domestic economy in China is struggling. If Chinese consumers don't consume, there will be less demand for New Zealand's exports.
CAD: The Loonie spent most of its time slightly above one-for-one with the Greenback. It stayed out of the limelight with only a couple of statistics to show how the Canadian economy is doing. Manufacturers' costs fell by -0.5% in February while factory gate prices rose by 0.2%. The implication is positive for the Canadian dollar, in that manufacturers feel able to raise prices even though their costs are not going up. This week's Canadian and US employment numbers will both be important for the Loonie.
EUR: The economic story from Euroland was less than inspiring. Eurostat's assessments of industrial and economic confidence for the euro area as a whole were either unchanged or lower in March while German retail sales headed lower for a fourth consecutive month. Although EU finance ministers agreed to pump another €500bn into the bailout fund investors remained largely unimpressed because there is still not enough cash in the kitty to handle a major problem in Spain or Italy.
USD: Whilst the US economic data were not outstanding it was something else that tipped the dollar out of bed. The Federal Reserve chairman put the cat among the pigeons when he suggested that more quantitative easing - printing money - might be needed to get economic growth back up to normal levels. That, together with a repetition of his commitment to keep interest rates close to zero for another two years, sent the dollar to its weakest level against sterling in more than four months.
Hi everyone, please find the latest currency updates below – thanks.
AUD: As much by accident as by design, the Australian dollar and the pound remained fairly close together and were virtually unchanged on the week. The Australian economic data were damaging, especially the purchasing managers' index readings for manufacturing and services which both came in below the line at 50 which separates growth from contraction. The Reserve Bank of Australia did not improve matters when it hinted that the next move for interest rates would be downwards.
NZD: The Kiwi dollar had a better week than its Australian cousin. Its success came not from the superior NZ Economic data but from their complete absence. The NZ dollar kept such a low profile that investors could find no reason to trouble it. The only wobble came early this Tuesday morning when China unexpectedly reported a trade surplus for March. Chinese imports were down and investors inevitably saw it as a sign of reduced demand for New Zealand's exports.
CAD: The Canadian received a boost from a rush of positive economic data. Building permits rose by a monthly 7.5% and 82k new jobs were created in March, taking the unemployment rate down from 7.4% to 7.2%. The Ivey purchasing managers' index was only slightly disappointing, falling by a point to 65. Weaker than expected US employment data the following day rather rained on the Loonie's parade, knocking a cent off its earlier gains.
EUR: The euro had another difficult week, allowing sterling to come very close to its January highs and to get within two and a half cents of the peak it touched in mid-2010. The pound could go higher but first it will have to plough through a queue of sellers all keen to sell sterling close to a 41-month high. Wherever sterling goes next - but especially if that direction is downwards - now would be a sensible time for buyers of the euro to act.
USD: Strong signals from the US economy helped the dollar through the first four days of last week. It received further assistance from the Federal Reserve when the minutes of its March meeting suggested less chance of renewed quantitative easing ("printing money"). There was a setback when the March employment report showed an increase of just 120k in non-farm payrolls. It was less than investors had anticipated and took some of the shine off the dollar.
The Australian dollar remains weak after concerns resurfaced on the global economic recovery.
Negativity has returned as doubts remain on the eurozone recovery (namely Italy and Spain) – there are also concerns about Chinese growth.
Hi all – please find the latest currency updates below, thanks.
AUD: The Aussie strengthened by a cent against the pound. All of that gain came on Thursday morning, following strong employment data. Instead of rising as expected to 5.3%, unemployment was steady at 5.2% in March. The even better news was that employers hired a further 44.0k staff during the month. The figure more than offset the previous month's -15.4k decline and blew away expectations of a 6k increase.
NZD: A half-cent gain against sterling was enough to put the Kiwi dollar into fourth position in the weekly league table for major currencies. Its gains came at least as much from expectations of European Central Bank activity as they did from anything in the domestic economy. If anything, the home-grown news was slightly negative: Business NZ's purchasing managers' index was less positive, down three points at 54.5. The Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion improved from zero to 13 but analysts suspect it overstates the real situation.
CAD: To all intents and purposes the Canadian dollar and the pound are unchanged against one another from a week ago. Neither Canada nor Britain delivered any earth-shaking economic news. Canada's contributions were a small increase in housing starts and disappointing trade figures. February's trade surplus was a disappointing $290 million; investors had been looking for something closer to the previous month's $1.95 billion.
EUR: A narrow range kept sterling in a range of just three quarters of a cent against the euro. Not until this Monday morning did the pound make its move, breaking above the January high to its highest level since September 2010. A resurgence of concern about Spanish sovereign debt makes investors more inclined to buy the pound but a decisive rally is not yet a done deal: Plenty of folk are ready to sell pounds close to a four-year high.
USD: There was nothing to choose between the US dollar and the pound; just half a cent separated them after the shortened post-Easter week. Investors saw nothing in the US economic data to persuade them that the previous week's unexpectedly weak payrolls figure was symptomatic of a deeper problem. The Federal Reserve's six-weekly assessment of the national economy spoke of "modest to moderate" growth and the market was content to live with that.
Hi all – please find the latest currency updates below, thanks
AUD: The Aussie continued the retreat begun in mid-February, taking GBP/AUD 6% above its low with the addition of another two and a half cents. Economic indicators from Australia did few favours to the dollar. A 4% monthly increase in motor vehicle sales was good enough but falls in import, export and factory gate prices pointed to less competition for Australian products. More than one analyst believes the AUD has further to fall.
CAD: Things started to look up for the Canadian dollar when the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1% for a 20th month and hinted in its accompanying statement that the next move would be upward. Investors warmed to the idea and bought the dollar. They backed off on Friday though, after figures showing sub-2% inflation suggested the BoC would be in no hurry to raise rates.
NZD: The Kiwi retreated to a three-and-a-half-month low against sterling. The only economic guidance came from the inflation figures for the first three months of 2012. They showed prices rising by 0.5% in the quarter and up by 1.6% from a year earlier. Opposition calls for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to manage NZ exchange rates through intervention were dismissed by the prime minister, who said it was the stuff of La La Land. He should know; he spent five years as global head of FX for Merrill Lynch/
EUR: A selection of good and not-so-bad news from Euroland allowed the euro to idle along in the middle of the field. Surveys of investor and business confidence in Germany delivered improved readings. Spain was able to sell €5bn of government bills and bonds at lower rates of interest than investors had feared. The International Monetary Fund received pledges of an extra $430bn for its bailout kitty. None of it was terrific news but most was better than expected or feared.
USD: The US dollar was left on the back burner while investors focused on Euroland. It started on Monday at the week's high and ended in New York on Friday at the low. US retail sales data were stronger than expected but most of the others were a disappointment. Industrial production was flat and sales of existing home fell. Manufacturing surveys by the Federal Reserve saw weaker progress in the New York and Philadelphia districts. The dollar paid the price.
Hi everyone – please find the latest currency updates below, thanks.
AUD: There was nothing to choose between the Australian dollar and the pound. They were unchanged on the week against one another. Investors' focus is now on Australian interest rates. After a low reading for factory gate prices and a halving of consumer price index inflation to 1.6% there is every chance of a central bank rate cut from 4.25% to 4% this week. It is also likely that a follow-up cut in June will take the Cash Rate benchmark down to 3.75%.
NZD: The pound moved ahead of the NZ dollar but only by a negligible half-cent. Most helpful to the Kiwi was news that visitor arrivals in the year to March were 11.3% more than in the previous 12 months. It marked a healthy recovery for the tourist trade following earthquakes in Christchurch and Japan. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate benchmark steady at 2.5% before issuing a confusing statement which left investors in the dark about future timing and direction.
CAD: The Canadian dollar won on points in a week that saw the top half dozen currencies move by less than a cent against each other. With it already holding steady above the US dollar, investors could find no excuse to take it further ahead. This Monday morning the Loonie was demonstrating its medium-term stability against the pound, trading close to its average weekly price over the last one and two years.
EUR: In another successful run for sterling the euro touched its lowest level in three and a half years and the pound's trade-weighted index achieved its highest level since August 2009. The euro's defeat came as a result of weak purchasing managers' index readings from across Euroland and falls for consumer and industrial confidence. A downgrade of Spain's credit rating put a miserable end to what was already a difficult week for the euro.
USD: The dollar was one of the week's worst performers, falling by nearly two cents against the pound. The move was counterintuitive because economic data from America and Britain pointed in exactly the opposite direction: UK output fell in the first quarter, putting the country back into recession, while US output rose for an 11th consecutive quarter. Yet investors did not care. Ignoring the lessons of history they bought the pound and sold the dollar.