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    Thread: The Pound vs Australian dollar


    1. #221

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      Worth keeping an eye on Greece.

      Risk remains over Greece lurching out of the single currency (the euro) - which has come to be known as Grexit.

      If this was to take place, it could have an adverse affect on the Australia dollar – the dollar is a ‘risk’ currency therefore any globally uncertainty could see it go weaker.

    2. #222

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      Currency review of June below.

      The three Commonwealth dollars were the weakest among the major currencies in June. By far the worst result was the New Zealand's -9% decline but the Aussie's -3.5% fall did not look too clever either, especially as it involved a six-year low along the way. All told, the Australian dollar went up by five NZ cents and it lost one and a half US cents, one and a half cents to the euro and seven cents to the pond.

      During the first couple of days of June the Aussie showed promise. Figures for the first quarter showed the Australia economy expanding by 0.9% over the three months, twice as much as Britain, three times as much as Euroland and infinitely more than the United States, where there was no growth at all.

      Thereafter, if it was not a downward one-way street for the Australian dollar it was certainly a determined backward march almost until the end of the month. The retreat began after the trade figures showed a -6% fall for exports in April while imports went up by 4%. The currency did get the occasional break, such as a sharp rise in employment and a correction to the balance of trade at the beginning of July, but the economic data were broadly unhelpful.

      Even more unhelpful was the Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens. He told an audience that "we remain open to the possibility of further policy easing". In other words, don't write off the possibility of another rate cut. His words were given added weight the following day when, out of the blue, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its own benchmark interest rate.

      Meanwhile in Britain and the United States (though not in the euro zone) the talk was of how soon and how quickly the sterling and US dollar rates would move higher. Those increases might not be imminent but the mood of the RBA is still leaning in the opposite direction.

      In the month ahead investors will be keeping an eye on China, where there is concern about the Shanghai stock market and the possible effect on the economy. At the end of June the People's Bank of China cut interest rates, apparently in response to falling share prices. The worry is that if the share price bubble pops instead of deflating slowly it will hurt the Chinese economy and therefore that of Australia.

    3. #223

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      Weekly Australian dollar review below – thanks.

      It was a messy week for the commodity-oriented currencies, principally because investors were twitchy about China and Euroland. In China the Shanghai stock index continued the plunge it began a month ago and in Greece the people's referendum rejection of its creditors' proposals for reform and austerity made it look more likely that the euro was about to lose one of its members. Then the Chinese government took unusual steps to support share prices and a volte face by the Greek government led investors to believe a deal was at hand.

      As sentiment blew hot and cold the Aussie twice covered a four-cent range, weakening in response to bad news from China and Greece then strengthening after strong domestic employment data coincided with better news from abroad. In the end it lost a net one US cent and was down by two fifths of a cent to sterling.

    4. #224

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      For any GBP/AUD buyers the exchange rate keeps improving, sterling strengthened a fair bit today.

    5. #225

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      Weekly review below.

      It was difficult week all round for the commodity-related currencies.

      The Aussie got off lightest, losing half a US cent and falling by four and three quarter cents against sterling to a six-year low. (By way of consolation, the NZ dollar also touched its lowest level since April 2009 and the Canadian dollar hit a seven-year low.)

      None of the Australian economic statistics was particularly troubling to the Aussie. A fall in mortgage lending did no damage and weaker consumer confidence was offset by improved business confidence. The problem was the same old one; Australia's economy is not at its brilliant best. By contrast, central bankers in Washington and London were telling congressional and parliamentary committees that interest rates are about to turn upwards, "this year" in the States and "around the turn of the year" in Britain.

      Sterling achieved the week's best result and the US dollar took silver.

    6. #226

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      The pound still remains strong against the Australian dollar - lot of negativity around the dollar at the moment.

    7. #227

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      Weekly currency review is below, thanks.

      An upward turn in the Australian dollar's fortunes saw it become the top performer among the major currencies, strengthening by two thirds of a US cent and rising by three cents against sterling. It received some help from the economic data, which showed a strong 38.5k increase in employment and a decent improvement in retail sales. Of greatest help, though, was the Reserve Bank of Australia. Tuesday's RBA rate statement included nine of the usual bluster about the currency being overvalued and Friday's monetary policy statement appeared to rule out any chance of further rate cuts.

      Sterling looked alright until Thursday, when evidence emerged that the Bank of England is less eager for higher interest rates than previously thought.

      The apparent postponement of a UK rate increase from "around the turn of the year" to sometime in 2016 cost the pound two and a half cents.

    8. #228

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      Fairly quiet week ahead data wise - RBA minutes released could be interesting in terms of any comments regarding interest rates in Australia.

    9. #229

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      The pound is stronger today following inflation data released today from the UK.

      The UK's inflation rate turned positive in July - the Consumer Prices Index measure was 0.1% (from June's 0%).

    10. #230

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      As we come to the end of the week, the Australian dollar is once again weaker – the dollar reacted to poor economic news released from China.

      As I’ve mentioned a few times on this thread, China is a major trading partner for Australia. Therefore, any news released from China can have an impact on the Aussie dollar.

      Thanks

      John

     

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