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    Thread: The Pound vs Australian dollar


    1. #261

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      Australian dollar monthly review is below – thanks.

      Don’t put all your eggs in one basket, as the saying goes. In recent months the Australian economy has been learning this the hard way. Since Black Monday last August, however, Australia has been forced to diversify its trade partners away from its reliance on China, and such efforts finally appear to be bearing fruit. Good news that manifested itself in the form of positive balance of trade data, which showed exports rising and imports falling, and stronger-than-expected quarterly growth of 0.6% in Q4 2015 – dispelling much of the recent anxiety over performance following disparaging economic data releases from Beijing. Consequently the Aussie was the strongest performer amongst the major currencies in the early part of the month; picking up from where it left off at the end of February.

      With Australian economic statistics thin on the ground the Aussie benefitted from news elsewhere: data showing a decline in American hourly wages aided its cause against the US dollar, before it strengthened against the pound, after the Bank of England governor told parliament that Britain's exit from the European Union poses "the biggest domestic risk to financial stability". It initially lost ground to the euro when the European Central Bank announced lower interest rates and increased stimulus at their March policy meeting, but soon rallied when they informed the waiting media that ‘we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further’.
      The Aussies recent strong run was temporarily undone by its own central bank following the release of the minutes from their most recent policy meeting, which hinted – not for the first time in recent months – that current inflation issues could lead to a cut in the Cash Rate. The repetitive nature of this rhetoric meant that losses were far from severe.

      The Aussie managed to regain its footing thanks to America’s Federal Reserve, who implied that only two rate increases are now on the cards this year, rather than the four that were previously mentioned. Good news for all the commodity-related currencies.
      It wasn’t long, however, before a combination of factors caused investors to take flight from the supposedly risky commodity-related currencies, in favour of those perceived as offering a safe haven. In an about turn the Fed wheeled out a series of regional presidents who spoke publicly of a possible rate increase in April, before the horrifying terrorist attacks in Belgium instigated a move towards risk-aversion. Having lost ground to the US dollar as a result, the Aussie managed to strengthen against sterling in the wake of the Brussels bombings, which were perceived as a catalyst to sway people toward voting to leave the EU in June – a potential scenario that has been putting the pound under significant downward pressure in 2016.

      Just a few days later, and in stark contrast to her hawkish subordinates, Fed chairperson Janet Yellen spoke of global risks to the U.S. economy – including low oil prices and uncertainty over China – justifying a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy. The previous rhetoric around imminent rate hikes was soon forgotten and the Aussie subsequently gained one and a half US cents and added two thirds of a cent against sterling. For the year to date it is 5% higher against the US dollar and 8% higher against sterling.

      Data emanating from China has been positive in the first quarter of this year, with Chinese firms announcing that $113bn has been spent on overseas deals so far – already just $8bn off of the total for 2015. China’s resurgence coupled with improving commodity prices has boosted the Australian economy, and this is reflected by the strength of the Aussie dollar against a basket of major currencies.

    2. #262

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      Poor economic data from the UK regarding the slowing of wage growth weakened the pound yesterday.

    3. #263

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      The pound a little stronger today.

      Barack Obama's speech at the end of last week, in which he encouraged Britons to vote to stick with the European Union, has gone down well with investors. They believe it improves the Remainers' chance of success. That improvement, in turn, makes the pound somewhat less of a risky proposition.

    4. #264

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      The GBP/AUD rates are starting to rise – good news if you are looking to transfer money to Australia in the near future. If you are moving within the next few months, or need to make any money transfers, it is definitely worth having a chat with us about the money transfer aspect of the move.

    5. #265

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      As you can probably gauge from the exchange rate this year and my posts on this thread, we should see a lot of movement in the exchange rates in the weeks leading up to the EU referendum – therefore now is a good time to start looking into this aspect if you need to send money to or from Australia in 2016.

      It’s worth getting set up/registered with a foreign exchange specialist company in plenty of time so you are in a position to take advantage of rates if they do start to climb towards $2 again. Registering is completely free of charge with moneycorp and puts you under no obligation to actually use us for the transfer. This means when the rate hits a good level, you can book/secure it. Otherwise, if you’re not registered when it happens you may miss the high level.

      For example the high of today for GBP/AUD so far was 1.9839 and the low for today so far is 1.9660. This illustrates how much they rates can fluctuate even in one day and the importance of having everything in place so you can quickly act and book a rate when it does spike.

      Even if your funds are not completely available yet, it is still worth getting it set up up a Moneycorp account and speaking with us as there are ways to book rates for a future date.

      More information and our registration link can be found here - http://www.pomsinadelaide.com/index.php?pageid=forex

    6. #266

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      Sterling spikes against the Australian dollar

      The sterling Australian dollar rate of exchange rallied further this morning following yesterday’s impressive gains.

      Opinion polls can hold strong influence over currency direction, so the release of the Evening Standard’s latest UK EU referendum poll result yesterday, showing 55% of respondents wanting to Remain in the EU and 37% preferring to Leave, helped boost the British pound to levels last seen back in February 2016.

      Whilst the pound was happy to receive such a boost, the Australian dollar was languishing having fallen heavily against a rampant US dollar. The US Federal Reserve policymakers' minutes released yesterday highlighted the growing likelihood of yet another American interest rate hike to come and possibly as soon as their next meeting in June.

      Australian jobs data released overnight saw the unemployment rate hold steady at 5.7% – a 2 year low – although on closer scrutiny this was slightly disappointing, as the number of jobs added was lower than forecast and was boosted by part-time positions increasing.

      Should you have upcoming international transfers to make, please visit the Poms in Adeladaide currency homepage - http://www.pomsinadelaide.com/index.php?pageid=forex

      To benefit from no transfer fees please ensure you mention Poms in Adelaide when contacting moneycorp.

      Thanks

      John

    7. #267

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      Australian dollar is weaker this morning – following comments from the RBA governor Glenn Stevens.

      Good levels to consider buying some AUD if you need to do anything in the short term.

    8. #268

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      GBP/AUD pair hits 3 month high
      In his latest address, delivered yesterday evening, Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia spoke of his appetite for a weak Australian dollar, before dropping heavy hints that lower interest rates are around the corner.

      The Aussie has fallen by more than a cent and a half since his remarks.

      In terms of its relationship with the pound, Governor Stevens' dovish rhetoric has contributed to the GBP/AUD pair reaching its best levels since February.

    9. #269

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      The pound is weaker against the Australian dollar.


      This was following a Guardian/ICM poll which suggested public opinion has in fact moved towards the UK leaving the EU.

    10. #270

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      Monthly currency review is below – thanks.

      Doubts about the global economy, stemming from lacklustre economic data from around the world meant investors took flight from the commodity-orientated currencies in favour of the safe-haven euro, Japanese yen and US dollar as May commenced.

      All the signs were pointing towards a possible interest rate cut Down Under in the near future, yet few investors expected one in May. In the end, however, the strength of the Australian Dollar seen over the last few months, alongside low Australian inflation data finally forced the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hand. Consequently, the central bank succumbed to pressure and decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% to a record low 1.75%. The Aussie took an immediate four-cent bath and lost a further ground when the RBA marked down its expectations for inflation.

      And with further interest rate cuts in the offing, investors remained wary of the Aussie. A mind-set that seemed perfectly reasonable following the release of the consumer inflation expectations figure: the nation reduced its forecast for inflation from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May. As expectation decreases, so the chance of further dovish action from the RBA increases.

      The Aussie gained some brief respite when the RBA dampened speculation of an imminent rate cut, before Australian employment data revealed the unemployment rate had steadied at 5.7%. The welcome data came after analysts had been expecting the Australian unemployment rate to increase to 5.8% in April. Despite this, the US dollar had the upper hand courtesy of a string of warnings from US Federal Reserve presidents that rates should go up State side in the next month or two; and the pound was given a leg up to head the field overall by EU referendum opinion polls which suggested the Remain campaign is in the ascendency.

      The Australian economy was keeping a low profile towards the end of the month and when it did have anything of note to say, it wasn’t positive: construction output and private capital expenditure (investment) both fell by more than expected in the first quarter of 2016. Even so, the Aussie managed to maintain its level against the US dollar. It was a different story in terms of its relationship with the British pound, which was experiencing resurgence thanks to ongoing anti-Brexit sentiment in the UK. A trend in public opinion that was lent further support by the Bank of England governor when he told parliament's Treasury Committee that "a vote to leave the EU could have material [adverse] economic effects". Unsurprisingly, investors interpreted this to mean the central bank is supportive of the Remains argument and, thus, the pound.

      Mixed ecostats towards the end of May highlighted that, in the current economic climate, investors are more inclined to punish the Aussie for failure than they are to reward it for achievement.

     

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