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    Thread: The Pound vs Australian dollar


    1. #271

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      Needless to say, it’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks. Exchange rates are likely to fluctuate a lot.

      Pound slightly stronger this morning as some opinion polls over the weekend showed Remain back in front in the EU Referendum.

    2. #272

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      The UK has voted to leave the European Union after 43 years. Leave won by 52% to 48% - the pound is significantly weaker this morning against all currencies.

    3. #273

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      Pound continues to drop to new lows

      The uncertainty generated by the prospect of life outside the European Union, following the historic Leave vote last week, has left sterling lagging a considerable way behind the other dozen most actively-traded currencies. As the dust settled over the weekend we were greeted by Chancellor George Osbourne this morning, who broke his silence on the subject when he told a news conference that the result of the referendum was “not the outcome that I wanted” but that authorities were “ready to deal with the consequences”.

      Having lost significant ground in the immediate aftermath of Fridays events, the pound came under further pressure today as markets continue to digest the result and anticipate the next steps in the Brexit process.

    4. #274

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      More stable day for the pound in that it didn't weaken massively.

    5. #275

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      All eyes on the UK today.

      There has been some speculation that the Bank of England could make the first cut to UK interest rates in more than seven years today.

    6. #276

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      The Bank of England has held the UK's main interest rate at 0.5% - as mentioned above there was speculation that rates would be cut.

    7. #277

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      Having borne the brunt of the British publics shock decision to sever ties with the EU following the announcement of the referendum result on 24th June, the pound has delivered a stellar performance this week; strengthening by an average of 3.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies.

      It achieved this after an unexpectedly swift resolution to the leadership campaign on Monday was followed by the Bank of England’s surprise decision to leave its 0.5% Bank Rate unchanged yesterday

    8. #278

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      IMF sharply downgrades UK's growth forecast
      The pound was dealt its latest post Brexit blow yesterday when the International Monetary Fund published its world economic update. Having downgraded its forecasts for global growth this year and next by 0.1 percentage points, to 3.1% and 3.4% respectively, the Fund’s biggest revision was – unsurprisingly – applied to the UK economy; cutting the 2016 forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 1.7%, before slashing it dramatically by 0.9 percentage points to 1.3% in 2017. Investors were subsequently compelled to sell the pound against the US dollar as Brexit fuelled economic uncertainty intensified.

      UK unemployment rate falls to 11-year low
      The UK unemployment rate has fallen to 4.9%, the lowest since July 2005. The unemployment total fell by 54,000 to 1.65 million in the three months to May, 201,000 less than a year earlier and the lowest level since spring 2008. The number of people in work rose by 176,000, while the employment rate remains at a record high of 74.4%. However, with investors well aware that these positive figures relate to a time prior to the Brexit vote, the pound has gained little strength from their release.

      Looking ahead
      Australian business confidence data is released this evening. Tomorrow sees the release of UK retail sales figures, before the European Central Bank President delivers his latest press conference.

    9. #279

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      The Australian and NZ dollars were both left in the dust by the Japanese yen but in second and third place they were well ahead of the other major currencies. The Aussie had to settle for bronze, strengthening by nearly two cents against sterling and adding half a US cent. Success did not come easily: the Aussie went onto the retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday before getting back into the saddle on Wednesday. Its performance was dictated by external factors: the only Australian ecostats were Wednesdays inflation data, in which the Reserve Bank of Australia's "trimmed mean" was unchanged at 1.7%.

      The external factor in Britain was last Friday's purchasing managers' index readings, which showed a slowdown in activity across the private sector and increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August. In the States it was the Federal Reserve, whose monetary policy statement gave no sign of any urgency to increase rates.

    10. #280

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      The monthly currency review is below.

      After nearly a week of counting the incumbent prime minister Malcolm Turnbull looked likely to hold onto his job but with only a slender majority. Leaving him less able to drive through the deficit-reduction measures the country needs and because of that Standard & Poor's put Australia's AAA credit rating on negative watch.

      Eight days after Australia’s general election ended in uncertainty, the prime minister finally claimed victory for his conservative coalition, bringing an end to the country’s political paralysis - at least for the moment.
      Employment data were helpful to the Aussie, with the addition of 8k jobs in June and a big swing from part-time to full-time working.

      The attempted coup d'état in Turkey took place just in time for the New York FX market to react to it. Investors' instant reaction was to offload anything commodity-related and stock up with safe-haven US dollars and Japanese yen. The Aussie retreated as a result: down by a cent on the week against sterling and wearing a loss of one and a half US cents. The Aussie received no help whatsoever from a downgrade by the International Monetary Fund of its global growth forecast.

      Nor did the Reserve Bank of Australia come to the Aussie's aid when it published the minutes of its last board meeting. The final sentence gave every impression that the board has a rate cut at the back of its mind.
      Success did not come easily to the currency in the latter part of July, with its performance dictated by external factors: the only Australian ecostats were inflation data, in which the Reserve Bank of Australia's "trimmed mean" was unchanged at 1.7%. The external factor in Britain was the purchasing managers' index readings, which showed a slowdown in activity across the private sector and increased the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August. In the States it was the Federal Reserve, whose monetary policy statement gave no sign of any urgency to increase rates.

      Investor attention quickly turned to the start of August when the Reserve Bank of Australia was widely expected to reduce interest rates to a record low, after a recent run of weak inflation numbers.

     

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