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    Thread: The Pound vs Australian dollar


    1. #281

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      The UK inflation rate was unchanged from July.


      The pound was intially strong today but has dropped back against the dollar.

    2. #282

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      Australian Dollar review is below, thanks.

      Commodity-related currencies in general were helped by softer-than-expected economic data from the United States. The number of jobs created in August was fewer than forecast and a survey of services sector businesses found their activity slowing over the same month.

      Eight days of gains for the Aussie came to a messy end on Friday 2nd, apparently as a result of an interview that Glenn Stevens, the outgoing Reserve Bank of Australia governor, gave to the Australian Financial Review. His comment that the Australian dollar "could give us trouble" was interpreted as a hint that it was too strong.

      In common with most emerging market and commodity-related currencies the Aussie was undermined by a suspicion that central banks in Japan and Germany are coming under political pressure to rethink their aggressive quantitative easing activities, which have flooded the world with ultra-cheap money for several years.

      Australian job stats were inconclusive, insofar as they showed both a loss of jobs in August and a fall in the rate of unemployment. Ecostats from the UK were broadly positive but not sufficiently so to enthuse new buyers of the pound. In the States a fall in retail sales further lessened the likelihood of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in September. In the end the Aussie lost one and a quarter US cents and was down by a cent and three quarters against sterling.
      After losing out to the NZ dollar for more than a month the Aussie turned a corner and strengthened by 2% in the middle part of the month. It was mainly interest rates that accounted for the move. The Reserve Bank of Australia board minutes seemed to dismiss the possibility of any further interest rate cuts while a statement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said "further easing will be required" if the economy needs it.

      Meanwhile the pound was under pressure from the prospect of its own rate cut and it was taking flak from a step-up in the rhetoric surround Britain's exit from the EU. The chancellor does not believe the country can remain in the single market and talk of a "hard Brexit" worried investors. The Aussie put in one of the best performances against sterling, picking up more than five cents. It also added a little over one US cent.

      A lack of significant domestic economic data meant the main driver for the Aussie at the end of the month was investors' appetite for risk, which blew hot and cold. Ahead of the first US presidential candidates' debate they were nervous that Donald Trump was in the lead, with all that implies for international relations and trade: after it they were more relaxed. OPEC's surprise announcement of a cap on oil production was vaguely helpful to risk-appetite while grumbling concerns about Deutsche Bank were not.

    3. #283

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      Bad day for sterling, rate has dropped dramatically.

    4. #284

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      With a lot of Brexit speculation and talk around the subjet, this has clearly had a negative impact on the pound making it weaker. Last week there was a big drop in the rate.

      This week, the Aussie home loans data came out negatively however hasn’t affected the Australian dollar too much yet.

    5. #285

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      Carney and the QIR


      Fresh from the declaration of his ongoing commitment to Brexit Britain the governor of the Bank of England will today present the bank's quarterly Inflation Report. Mark Carney might also have to justify a lower Bank Rate and increased asset purchases but most analysts think that unlikely.


      Recent UK economic data have been punchier than feared by some economists following the EU referendum. Whilst the governor did hint at a second rate cut this year investors would be surprised to see one today, given the weakness of sterling. What investors will get, either way, is his spin on the bank's forecasts for growth and inflation. Dr Carney is unlikely to talk up the pound.


      Two other sterling-sensitive events today are the high court's verdict on the execution of Article 50 and the purchasing managers' index for Britain's services sector. The Article 50 decision will be appealed whichever way it goes.

    6. #286

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      Data just released…

      In September, British industrial output fell unexpectedly - pulled lower by maintenance at North Sea oil and gas field - manufacturing growth picked up.

    7. #287

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      A 13% plunge in the value of the Mexican peso and a 5% decline in Japanese equity prices appeared to show investors were not fully prepared for a Donald Trump win.

      Investors initial reactions included selling equities, selling commodity-related and emerging-market currencies. Nobody knows quite what a Trump presidency will mean for the global economy, let alone for currency and capital markets, but many fear it will have negative implications.

      The GBP/AUD exchange rate has remained relatively stable for most of the day.

    8. #288

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      Pound much stronger over the past 24 hours.

      This following uncertainty from the U.S. election on what the potential fallout may be.

    9. #289

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      After a cracking day last Wednesday, which the chancellor's Autumn Statement did nothing to spoil, sterling wallowed through Thanksgiving and floundered on Black Friday. Just as the pound's gains in the middle of last week owed little to the ecostats, neither did its losses at the end.

      The only UK statistic on Thursday was the narrow BBA mortgage approvals figure, which rose for a second successive month to just shy of 40k. No issues there, then. And Friday's numbers were good, in that they all matched or exceeded forecast. The second stab at third quarter gross domestic product left quarterly growth unchanged at 0.5% with business investment rising by 0.9%; more than expected. Retail sales were strong in November, with the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey indicating a 26% monthly increase.

      Yet sterling still lost some ground against the Australian dollar.

      Still relatively strong overall the Australian dollar is benefiting from higher bulk commodity prices, particularly iron ore which is the nation’s largest export item.

    10. #290

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      Another day and another Brexit story.

      This time, the story was about a new legal challenge that seeks to separate Britain's membership of the EU from its participation in the European Economic Area. It weakened the pound a little.

      In reality, the pound's fall owed more to profit-taking than to Brexit or any other fundamental economic factor. Sterling has been - and remains - the top performer over the last month, strengthening by an average of 3.8%. With gains of that scale in hand, a decent-sized order to sell sterling - or even the rumour of one - would have been enough to encourage investors to take some profit or at least to pull back their bids.

     

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