Housing Bubble in Australia?

[Anne B]

I know there has been thread on this before, but there has been a lot in the media about this recently, and many people (especially those with vested interests in property) keep saying Australia is different, there is no bubble etc.

 

This is a very balanced article by the ABC on this, which documents how the Commonwealth Bank recently released a presentation to overseas investors which contained some very dodgy data to hide the true figures.

 

Housing bubble debate boils over - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

If there is a bubble about to burst or just a long period with house prices not going up, then obviously it means there is no rush to buy just yet.

[Guest Matey2]

It is hard to tell what is going to happen.

 

This is a site which shows the median house price change in the past year in every area of Adelaide

 

Adelaide 2009 - 2010 house prices and statistics - median house values

 

Some huge increases and some huge decreases there, which is quite confusing.

 

I also read an article today which said that there are likely to be 5 more interest rate rises in the next year, which can only put a lid on prices.

[Guest guest569]

surely the fact that rent is getting so expensive these days, people will still keep buying houses as long as the banks will lend them the asking prices ???

It just seems to be getting so hard for the youngsters still on a lower wage to get on the property ladder !!!

[Guest kangomik]

I gave up guessing the market, i am told houses in this area have risen 50K in the last 12 months, i wouldn't know because i am not looking. (one fella told me 50K in 7 months!)

 

Median house prices is a pitfall. It all depends on what price houses are selling, here a lot of unit homes have been sold and the median has dropped to near 300K, find a house with 3 beds for that around here and you will be lucky.

 

Estate agents and banks will spin in it up, they use the employment papers to back this up, Skills shortage etc. Afterall this is their business. Property is still selling around here and selling quite fast, though you do hear a few falling through due to a chain........ something i never heard 2 years ago. So i am guessing bridging mortgages are no longer in favour due to high prices.

 

If you think there is a bubble and it will burst then now would be the time to sell............ if there is no bubble and you did sell it could cost you a few dollars in 12 months time when you decide to get back on, lets say 50k plus stamp?????????? Crikey. If you then bought and it burst you would be really cheesed off................... Like I said, I gave up guessing, it only matters if you are selling or buying. I may be looking for another in 12 months though

[Guest snowy10]

It is hard to tell what is going to happen.

 

This is a site which shows the median house price change in the past year in every area of Adelaide

 

Adelaide 2009 - 2010 house prices and statistics - median house values

 

Some huge increases and some huge decreases there, which is quite confusing.

 

I also read an article today which said that there are likely to be 5 more interest rate rises in the next year, which can only put a lid on prices.

 

The areas with massive increases and decreases are based on very low sales, i.e. only 1 property sold in the area in 12 months compared to the previous year. That could mean the 1 house sold was a 1 bed house so there will be a massive fall.

if the house value for the previous year were all 5 bed mansions.

 

It only seems representative when you look at sales at 15 or above and generally the increase looks to be around 10%.

 

It's like all stats, you can read good and bad with the same figures, it's just a case of how you want to interprit the figures!!!!!

[Anne B]

Another long but good article

 

The Unconventional Economist: Australian Housing: A Bubble in Search of a Prick

[Guest mark&rachel]

So what is the long and short of that. Is it going to burst or not?

[Guest kangomik]

If only we had that crystal ball.

[Guest Matey2]

Someone was looking for this thread.

 

Funny I saw this in the news this weekend too;

 

Housing boom over as values fall | Adelaide Now

 

I reckon things are on the down

[Guest kangomik]

There was one a few months before this with more detailed predictions in it, still cannot find it, still wondering if ther timing was close or spot on.

[Guest guest4504]

And next week it will say housing is on the up and no bubble. I have read alot over the last 12 months and the same sites or writers do seem to switch views regular. Would be nice to see it stable and hold so the younger gen can catch up. As it would no doubt help many if it would burst, I wonder what damage it could do to the economy if it was to actualy burst by 30%-40% ? pretty messy I recon. So would it be best to burst ? For me yes, more bricks for my bucks. For economy no, could effect job market so harder to find work and have income. No point in thinking I own a 4 bed home, swimming pool, 3 car garage, see view house but cannot pay the bills anyway. Seems to have a balance to it and at the moment some or many may not win either way. Only thing I have done well out of a negative drop is when BP shares fell and I got on heavy with that, now 50% return in 6 months. Housing ? I will just watch. I wonder how many will say on this whare they hope it will go. I think my point is just a view and not much interest but I will watch this thread with interest in others point. Housing has been an interesting topic for me due to peoples different views on bricks and motor or homes. Anyway, I have got an headache so off for some asprin. Hope you all down under havin a good day and as for those up in this end, wrap up.

[Anne B]

There was one a few months before this with more detailed predictions in it, still cannot find it, still wondering if ther timing was close or spot on.

 

so it wasn't this one? http://www.pomsinadelaide.com/forum/renting-real-estate/16541-australian-housing-bubble-2.html

 

this referred to this website Who crashed the economy

and the post ......... Who crashed the economy » 2010 » May

Australia : Housing tipped for price implosion at any time

 

There are so many blogs out there on this

Delusional Economics

The Unconventional Economist

Tasmanian Real Estate Trouble

Houses and Holes

LVRG Blog (Prosper Australia)

 

If you've got the time to read them all. The politcians in Canberra obviously don't.

[Guest kangomik]

Thats the one Anne, thanks for that.

 

I may have got it wrong, but it looks like everyone is in the same boat.

 

Maybe trafford will add more, after following the thread i never did, and still do not understand his later comments.

[sueoc]

As has been said,who knows?All i know is at the moment i feel house prices are ridiculous,and we are not prepared to enter in to the stressful and expensive merry go round.We can rent and save substantially,so why bother!We would prefer to own our own property obviously,but not on the terms offered presently.