Jump to content
  • Sign Up
Guest Chelseadownunder

UK Pound v Aus Dollar

Recommended Posts

I'm no expert but money is always being transferred from one currency to another. At the weekend the rates don't move much as the money markets are shut. Some of the transactions are 'genuine', people like you and me moving their money, or companies paying overseas suppliers, some involve financial institutions and governments investing overseas to get the best rate of return on their money, but a lot of foreign exchange transactions are purely speculative, traders trying to make a quick buck (buy low and sell high). If the exchange rates were fixed we wouldn't need so many forex traders! I'm sure that a lot of the ups and downs in the market aren't really necessary and are only there so that the forex traders have a chance to make some money. It's all a game, and a very dangerous one considering the banks and the financial markets caused the GFC a few years back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currency speculation is ultimately a form of gambling. Just as in horse racing, the punters study the form, the course conditions, etc., the money speculators look at what's going on and try to predict what might happen. As far as exchange rates are concerns, expected outcomes and trends are often 'priced in' ahead of time. But occassionally, the unexpected happens, just like the odds-on favourite sometimes falls at the first hurdle, a Tsunami happens in Japan, civil war breaks out in Libya, etc. Suddenly all bets are off. But the market eventually finds its own level once more. Astute investors are able to distinguish between underlying trends and the occassional blips which often have a profound albeit short term effect on rates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just a quick update, no hint of a rise in the pound.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/15/three_month.stm

 

A pre Easter update, still looking for that sterling recovery. C'mon financial experts where are your updates, or do you want to backtrack?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/15/default.stm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest smit
I am out of my depth can you help? Why does a currency change from day to day?

 

I 'thought' it was always due to things being announced.

 

For example if UK and AUS didn't have any news (like on xmas day) wouldn't the rate stay exactly the same?

 

If I am right, every day things happen that can effect the rate? Therfore every day's announcements can cause fluctuations?

 

As I said I am no expert, although many think I am due to what I post......so can you help us amateurs.

Currency rates change day to day because of what it is........a market....more buyers than sellers price goes up and vice versa..........but im sure you already know that.;) .Affected by news yes..........xmas day no...market shut.....and your last sentence dead true...........err 2nd to last sentence!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Some pieces of news can affect exchange rates more than others and the prospect of higher interest rates can have a positive effect on the currency. The Bank of England policy makers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold this month as the majority said that data on the economy during the previous month had “probably been to the downside.” Andrew Sentance maintained his call for an increase in the benchmark interest rate to 1 percent from a record low of 0.5 percent, while Martin Weale and Spencer Dale wanted a move to 0.75 percent. The remaining six Monetary Policy Committee members, including Governor Mervyn King, voted to hold the rate. This may explain the further drop in the currency. I dont need to tell you what a state the UK is in and this vote still shows no end....yet...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of cans and a may again.

 

No doubting the news that $ is at record highs v US dollar though. Facts speak better than speculation and wild guessing. :daydreaming:

 

The AU$ is strong and in fact getting stronger.

 

I think there is more chance of Torres scoring a goal than your (well experts you quote) predictions being accurate

 

Have a good Easter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Thanks Adelaide now for your kind words and Happy Easter wishes. It meant allot. Merry Easter to one and all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Hi Guys, I hope you all had a great Easter.

Unfortunately for the pound we have seen a spike in the inflation rate in Australia which increases the likelihood of interest rate rises here to try to cool things down. This is not good news for the pound. Back in blighty we are seeing the country just squeezing its head above ground with a GDP of 0.5%. Also the price chart is showing a signal of a downward pattern in the short term at least.

I write this comment to try to give some light to what is happening. I cannot predict what will happen I wish I could.

This should not be taken as financial advice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Mate

 

Do you give different info on the phone? You say it's not financial advice, but your sig says call for advice.

 

:biglaugh::biglaugh:

 

Go to work Matt!!!!!:policeman:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Every time I make a comment here to try and help members

My signature clearly says UK Pension transfer, Superannuation, Life Insurance, Investment, & Mortgage advice.

It does not say Forex.

I have clearly stated I am not give advice on this area I am just trying to add some light to what is happening with the knowledge etc.. I have in this area.

My comments should only be taken as a member of the site trying to help other members which was clearly stated at the start of this thread.

The time I spent wrting on this thread has not been for any personal gain whatsoever, I get pleasure from all the thanks I have had and the private messages I have also had recently which have been very encouraging.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Guest5035
Guest Chelseadownunder

Hi Guys,

To keep you updated of recent news.

I was interested to see comments made today regarding America`s huge budget deficit and their balooning public debt

The comment said .....for investors it could mean longer-term downwards pressure on the US dollar, ongoing interest in hedges against a falling US dollar such as gold and the Australian dollar.

So this could lead to a rise in the dollar and may account for the action we have seen in the the dollar and gold in recent weeks.

Cheers

Steve

(This should not be taken as financial advice)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Update - I went to a seminar yesturday which we hosted. The speaker made some very interesting comments.

With currency there are always fors and againsts for likely movement up or down.

He pointed to the continued strength of the Dollar. Our interest rates here are attracting money from all over due to our high rate comapred to Japan Near zero US near zero Europe just above 1% UK 0.5% its no surprise the dollar is strong and under demand.

What was a surprise, if you look back long term a dollaw Oz for a dollar US is more of a normal level. Pre 1982 the aussie dollar/Pound was worth more than this.

The potential headwinds are - A slow down in China, A housing market crash etc...etc...

He made the point that there is an undersupply of houses in Oz and that ultimately this could potentially give a flloor to the market.

He did say that he is expecting a possible pull back in the ussie dollar in the short term but strength long term.

 

These comments I make as a member of the site not an adviser. They should not be taken as advice but read in conection with all the other information you can glean.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know you will think I am picking on you, for which I am not.

 

But you hosted an event, who was it aimed at? Serious question because all of what you said is pretty common knowledge and in the papers daily.

 

For example, the Australian population is growing and the Government wants it to grow, and that will mean we need more houses - naturally.

 

And I think we all know that pre 1982 the $ was different, EVERY time the $ hits a new high they say it's a 29 year high, what year was 29 years ago :-)

 

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Looking back through this thread you will see the constant nit picking I get. I took the time out to make this post. You can never please every one. I tried to make peace with these guys but they will not stop. Its sad that so many threads on this site turn into a soap drama. I cant post what I would like to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the record, I am not trying to cause any trouble with you or anyone else.

 

I don't think I have ever said what you post is wrong, you are the professional and I am not - so I am not in a position to doubt your speculating and guesswork.

 

I am also unsure what you mean about these guys, I am me, I don't post in cahoots with anyone else.

 

Please don't try and start trouble, its unfair on those that read all our posts and take interest in them.

 

Have a good weekend, and I hope you stuff Man Utd on Monday morning.

 

Cheers!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Sharing the love. Make love not war. Yes I can make your house on the 14th. Looking forward to it. Sounds like its going to be a great bash. Love you man.

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Chelseadownunder

Woops have I let the surprise party out of the bag. Sorry mate !! See you on the wink wink 14th shhhhhhhh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use