Guest BurgessFamily

Oz home prices in biggest drop in 12 years

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    Guest BurgessFamily
    "Basically there are more people putting their properties on the market than there are people buying them,” RP Data research director Tim Lawless told BusinessDay. “Until we start to see that effective supply being absorbed, I really don’t think we’ll see any upward price pressures.”

     

    ...hmm sounds like a lot like OVER-SUPPLY. Could be a long way down.

     

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/home-prices-in-biggest-drop-in-12-years-20110429-1dzkb.html

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    Guest Matey2

    I've been saying this for 6 months. I think it's a very bad time to buy right now. :nah:

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    Guest Chelseadownunder

    Cairns house prices have droped apparantly around 30% recently !!

    Cleints I have seen recently have the comment "Its a buyers market" as they see values drop.

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    I think it depend on what web site you are looking at.:goofy:

     

    http://blogs.brockharcourts.com.au/blog/2011/04/11/this-is-a-good-year-to-buy-property/

     

     

    I would say Brock are talking it up. I have been watching houses round about on the market and there is nothing been selling. A few people have been taking there house of the market after 3 months as there is no interest or getting really low offers and are not willing to accept them.

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    The agents are definitely trying to talk the market up - programme on the radio on my way home from work tonight was on and on about what a good investment property is, and trying to make out that property values have doubled in the last ten years, implying that the same would happen now! Definitely not the case, as I can confirm having bought 7 years ago!!! Funnily enough the person on the radio was from Toop and Toop....

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    This makes me really sad as I really want my own house and were hoping to buy this year sometime. Will just have to wait to see what the future holds...

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    Guest Guest5035
    A guy near me put his 2 storey house up for $490K - $550K...got offered $550k cash...

     

    HG

     

    the buyer must have liked his future neighbours..:D

     

    stevo

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    Cairns house prices have droped apparantly around 30% recently !!

    Cleints I have seen recently have the comment "Its a buyers market" as they see values drop.

    Where did this data come from as I cannot find anywhere that has reported 30% losses in any part of the country.

    When people read this kind of scaremongering they have to realize that there are markets within markets, as Diane stated that her property that they bought 7 years ago has definitely not doubled its price, I'm quite sure that some suburbs in Adelaide there has been property that has doubled in the last 7 years.

    If you look at RP Data web site it states that Adelaide has had no change in the median house price quoting $385k at the median price, but another graphic from the Australian newspaper quotes Adelaide up by 0.5% with a median price of $452500.

    As with everything financial it seem to be a gamble to a certain extent, hoping that you buy at the right time at the lowest price before the next rising trend.

    I have always taken the view if you are buying a house for a home the short term doesn't really matter anyway, if you hang on to it for long enough it will go up in value.

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    Guest BurgessFamily

    Talking of The Australian...

     

    ANZ and Westpac's rise in mortgage arrears highlights an "alarming" problem lurking in the broader economy, say analysts.

     

    ANZ reported yesterday a sharp rise in arrears since September, with more than 30 days arrears rising 41 per cent to $5.8bn, while more than 90 days jumped 26 per cent to $2bn, with the majority related to its Australian mortgage business.

     

    ...amazing considering we have 'full employment'.

     

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/rising-mortgage-arrears-sound-alarms/story-e6frg9no-1226049758390

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    Guest Rochesdownunder

    Doom and gloom AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

     

     

    We just left Ireland to get away from all of this doom and here I am reading about it again in the papers Damn recessions ggrr The only think is i reckon Australia can never ever get as bad as Ireland

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    Guest BurgessFamily
    The only think is i reckon Australia can never ever get as bad as Ireland

     

    positive thoughts... don't think the EU would bail us out if it did. :biglaugh:

     

    At least the job's market is buoyant, we've had to close our job ad as we've had way too many applicants. Think I'll go blind reading through all the CVs. :P

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    Guest guest4504
    positive thoughts... don't think the EU would bail us out if it did. :biglaugh:

     

    At least the job's market is buoyant, we've had to close our job ad as we've had way too many applicants. Think I'll go blind reading through all the CVs. :P

     

    You must be paying very good :D . I thought that a high volume of applicants chasing each job show signs of a deteriorating job market ?

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    Where did this data come from as I cannot find anywhere that has reported 30% losses in any part of the country.

    When people read this kind of scaremongering they have to realize that there are markets within markets, as Diane stated that her property that they bought 7 years ago has definitely not doubled its price, I'm quite sure that some suburbs in Adelaide there has been property that has doubled in the last 7 years.

    If you look at RP Data web site it states that Adelaide has had no change in the median house price quoting $385k at the median price, but another graphic from the Australian newspaper quotes Adelaide up by 0.5% with a median price of $452500.

    As with everything financial it seem to be a gamble to a certain extent, hoping that you buy at the right time at the lowest price before the next rising trend.

    I have always taken the view if you are buying a house for a home the short term doesn't really matter anyway, if you hang on to it for long enough it will go up in value.

     

    This is the data from the government's Australian Bureau of Statistics on 2nd May for the March quarter.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

     

    It shows Adelaide house prices down 1% for the quarter, up 0.9% for the year (which shows that they were increasing earlier in the year and now they are falling). Brisbane was down 2.5% for the quarter, down 3.6% for the year.

     

    The RPData is here and the trend is definately down

    http://www.rpdata.com/images/stories/content/pressreleases/rp_data_rismark_home_value_index_apr_30_2011.pdf

     

    Localised markets like the Gold Coast and Cairns have shown bigger falls, but I'm not sure where the data for that can be found. Whole developments of new apartments in the Gold Coast have gone into receivership.

    http://www.news.com.au/money/property/coast-apartment-sales-falling-flat/story-e6frfmd0-1225999933684

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/gold-coast-complex-crashes-into-receivership/story-e6frg8zx-1225972387131

     

    A 4 bed new build house near us was initially up for sale for $780,000-$840,000. The first 'open' was in January. Despite dropping the price several times, down as low as $670,000 it has not sold, even after an auction. It is now up for rent and is still lying empty.

     

    Riponian, you should not be disheartened - just wait a little while longer (for prices to fall a bit more) and you should be able to buy a house at a reasonable price.

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    Guest BurgessFamily

    With regards to house prices, you have to taken into consideration the number of properties for sale compared to the number sold.

     

    The median property price can be heavily skewered if only a few 'high value' sales go through.

     

    For some positive spin, the SA government web site shows the following chart for a guide to house prices (which suggests the median would easily surpass $1M in the next few years) ...

     

    Metro_Median_House_Sales_Chart.gif

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    More information on the bust in Queensland in Noosa and the Gold Coast.

     

    http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/05/noosa-continues-to-keen-it/

     

    Also I notice the chart above starts in 1998, if you go back further you can see that was around the time that prices took off, but before that gains were more modest, and prior to 1988 house prices were pretty much flat (sorry I can't get the graph I've got for that to paste properly).

     

    housepricesaust_us_uk_mar11.gif

     

     

     

    House price increases are far greater than rents or inflation.

     

    housepricevsrentsdec2010.gif

     

     

    And whoops, look at household debt!!!!

     

    householddebtjun10.gif

     

     

    Looks like a bubble about to burst to me.

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    Guest Chelseadownunder

    Do you know what, I think this is a very valid point. I dont know if you guys saw the house up for sale in Hallett Cove for $500k which had tennants paying $400 p/w. How the hell do you get that to pay ?? $20,800 rental income for a mortgage that likely to be over $30k a year? You are totally reliant on house prices going up to make anything. In fact your loosing money in real terms.

    I am seeing this in many cases right now and for some they cant sell the houses.

    I wouldnt want to predict what will happen but it just doesnt seem to make sense right now, what do you guys think.

    (This is not meant as financial advice just a members comment)

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    For some positive spin, the SA government web site shows the following chart for a guide to house prices (which suggests the median would easily surpass $1M in the next few years) ...

     

    I'm not sure it does suggest a $1m median in a few years - such a rapid rise could just as easily suggest a sudden correction at some point.

     

    What the chart does illustrate is that one of the rmain drawcards for moving to SA has diminished in recent years i.e. cheap property!

     

    Jim

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