srg73

Crystal ball time?

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    I am simply after people opinions please as this is how I see things panning out for us at the moment.

     

    We are planning to move say in 18 months, visas most of the way there and gives us plenty of time to prepare and save.

     

    We are house owners in the SE UK and have a 3 bed semi in a good location in a good town with improvements continuously being made. The housing market in the uk is being held back by confidence from banks and buyers meaning there is a lot of pent up demand. I beleive once confidence starts to return that prices will go up as will earnings?

     

    The UK although hurting at the moment it is paying down its debt partly by holding down the value of sterling in order to help exports. I feel that this will change and the value of the pound will strengthen.

     

    The USA is in a mess and is going to hurt everybody especially China who export a huge amount to the USA but also hold trillions in government debt and bonds. The dollar I think is going to weaken along with a ressession USA is likely to fall into which will weaken Australia and its currency?

     

    Europe, what can I say. If anything is likely to destroy our plans then Europe is it! Southern Europe is likely to pull the remainder down and I can only see a split in the long run.

     

    So in 18 month we will be moving with a stronger pound, housing demand improving, Australia dollar weakening due to less demand. The other option is that we find a cave, move in and watch the financial world collapse

     

    S

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    As the title of your post suggests, who knows? The things you point out sound reasonable enough, but predictions of what will happen in economics at any time usually fall short of reality, and given the state the world's in (and has been for the last five years) then right now it's pretty much down to simple guessing. It's a bit like pointing out what the weather is currently like (and adding in a sprinkling of global warming theory if you believe in such things) and from this trying to extrapolate what the summer after next will be like.

     

    Jim

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    If only I had such a crystal ball...... We would certainly have done things differently if we had known the future!! I hope you are right (about the UK economy and currency improving). Economic events don't seem to follow the rules these days. Some say there are currency wars going on, with most nations deliberately devaluing their currency, except that Australia isn't playing the game and will suffer badly from the high aussie dollar.

     

    All I can say is "always expect the unexpected" and "whatever happens, life goes on".

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